The Midterms Are Being Fact-Checked in Real Time

The invitation that never came

In late September the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe posted a statement on its website. The decision not to invite the OSCE to observe the 2026 midterm congressional elections in the United States is regrettable, particularly given the long-standing co-operation with the country in the field of election observation, it read. The organization said the move was not in line with the 1990 Copenhagen Document, which recognizes that the presence of international observers can enhance the electoral process.

The statement confirmed what had been circulating on social media: the United States had not extended an invitation for the midterms. It was the first time since 2002 that the OSCE had not received an invitation to observe a federal U.S. election. The group began observing U.S. elections that year in Florida, after the contentious 2000 presidential contest, and has since observed 12 federal elections, including six midterms.

A White House official responded by email that no other nation has done more to advance the cause of human freedom and representative government than the United States and added that American elections will be administered, participated in, and observed by American citizens. The White House did not deny that it had declined an invitation and provided no explanation for departing from decades of precedent.

On the ground, the absence is felt as a shift in tone. Election watchers who had come to expect the OSCE’s assessment of whether fundamental freedoms are respected, whether elections are characterized by equality, universality, political pluralism, confidence, transparency and accountability, are now left to monitor a process without that external lens.

Ads bought with public money

Three taxpayer-funded spots featuring President Donald Trump began appearing on broadcast and streaming platforms on or after 23 September, each carrying a Paid for by the U.S. Government disclaimer. The first shows Trump saying, Together we will defeat communism, socialism, and Marxism in America. America will never be a communist country, with viewers repeatedly hearing the words love me and a voiceover from UFC CEO Dana White praising Trump for fighting so hard for the country he loves.

The third ad, in black and white, shows Trump walking as a voiceover declares we will demolish the deep state, expel the warmongers from our government, drive out the globalists, and cast out the communists, Marxists and fascists. We will rout the fake news media, and we will liberate America from these villains once and for all. The video is almost identical to an ad from Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. The second ad uses audio from his July 3 speech near Mount Rushmore, ending with This is only the beginning of the golden age of America.

The White House described the announcements as public service announcements in a September 25 press release, saying the announcements are very clearly not campaign ads; President Trump is not on the ballot and there is no call to action. The release said administrations of both parties have used public service announcements to explain policy and make the case for the nation’s direction.

Legal experts questioned the defense. Richard Painter, a corporate law professor and former White House ethics lawyer for George W. Bush, said the Trump White House ads are so clearly propaganda, which generally refers to government communications intended to manipulate or influence public opinion. John G. Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, said his perception is that the Trump White House ads are more political. We’ll see what the courts say, he said — if a lawsuit brings the matter to the judiciary.

A federal judge ordered a temporary halt. On Sunday, US District Judge Jennifer L Rochon of the Southern District of New York issued a temporary restraining order aimed at the ads, effective as of 6.45pm ET. The administration shall not enter into, renew, or expand any agreement authorizing the development, creation, dissemination, placement, or airing of the advertisements, the ruling said. Rochon also ordered the administration to cancel the remaining portion of a $20m advertising purchase, halting further spending on the campaign.

The ruling came amid a legal challenge filed by government watchdog Common Cause, Alabama state house Democratic candidate Robert Hunter, Service Employees International Union Local 32BJ, and the union’s political action committee. The plaintiffs argued the administration was using public funds to influence elections, stating defendants are attempting to skew midterm and state elections by using taxpayer dollars to run publicity and propaganda. According to media tracking firm AdImpact, the ads have cost taxpayers more than $12m. They have aired on major networks and during National Football League games as well as popular news and late-night shows.

A country weighing cost at the pump

The midterms are being fought on price. Americans head to the polls on 3 November to decide how the rest of Donald Trump’s presidency will play out. The House is currently held by Republicans with 218 representatives, the exact number needed to have control, plus one independent who votes with them. The Senate is held by Republicans with 53 seats while Democrats have 45 and two independents who also vote with them.

Approval is sliding. He began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50 percent, but it quickly fell into the 40s. It was hovering around 42 percent when Trump decided to launch air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February this year but it fell below 40 percent shortly afterwards. It is currently sitting at about 37 percent.

The Cook Political Report suggests just 21 House districts are toss-ups that could be won by either party. Of those 21, 15 are currently held by Republicans and six by Democrats. If Democrats win five of those on top of 28 districts classed as likely or leaning Democratic, they will win the House. Historically, the midterms see a high number of seats changing hands in the House, usually in a protest against the White House. The average number lost by the president’s party is 27.

In the Senate, analysis by the Cook Political Report suggests that only seven of the 35 seats up for grabs are toss-ups. Of those, six are currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats. Democrats would need to win four of those seats, plus the four classed as likely or leaning Democratic, to hit 51.

The cost of living crisis is proving to be the key issue for voters. Trump pledged to end inflation and make America affordable again in his 2024 election campaign. The president proudly declared that gas was now below $2.30 a gallon in most states in his State of the Union address on 24 February. But the war with Iran began four days later, disrupting Middle Eastern energy supplies and causing gas to hit $4 in the US. One poll carried out in August found 63 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the situation.

In Nebraska, rancher Yvette Mannon was already having a rough year. In April, a wildfire destroyed 1,600 grazing acres and 13 miles of fence along the ranch she bought in 2002. With steel prices at their highest levels in years, heavily affected by tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, that meant spending $4.89 a foot — for a total exceeding $300,000. On top of that, because so much good grazing land had been destroyed, Mannon also needed a tractor out every day delivering hay to her cattle at a time when diesel prices, spiking due to the Iran War, were up more than 40 percent from the previous year.

Then in August, the Trump administration announced it would import 300,000 metric tons of duty-free foreign beef in a bid to lower consumer prices. The news hit right before the September-November window when most US calves are weaned and sold. The cattle market tanked immediately. We’re Buy American, Let’s Make America Great, said Mannon, 63, who voted for Trump. But for you guys over here, sorry. It just felt like a betrayal, she said.

Many farmers and ranchers across the US say they are being hit from all sides. The Iran War has sent diesel and fertiliser prices skyrocketing. Tariffs have affected machinery costs and repairs, as well as steel and lumber prices. And decisions by the Trump administration — whether it be importing foreign beef or opening up the southern border to Mexican cattle — have sent already-volatile markets into overdrive.

Water, desert and the kitchen table

In Arizona, the top concern heading into the midterms isn’t inflation, immigration or education. It’s water. With the state gripped by prolonged drought, candidates are facing growing questions about how to secure its water future. For the first time ever, worries about water are the top concern for this swing state’s voters, even overtaking immigration and affordability, according to a recent survey from the Center for the Future of Arizona.

Federal cuts this summer to Colorado River water allocated to Arizona cities have deepened the anxiety. Now water issues are dominating the airwaves and the political debate for governor, and reaching into the competitive race for the open U.S. House seat in Arizona’s First District.

On a recent morning in Tucson, mayor Regina Romero knocked on a yellow door above a mat emblazoned with a cat’s silhouette and the words go away, peasants. After a young man finished brushing his teeth, she introduced herself and asked if he had heard of JoAnna Mendoza, the Democrat running to unseat Republican congressman Juan Ciscomani. She handed him a pamphlet and rattled off her candidate’s virtues. The young man stood stone-faced until she mentioned that Mendoza had served for nearly two decades as a US marine. His eyebrows raised.

Mendoza is drawing on her biography to connect with working-class voters in a district that is roughly 20 percent Hispanic and home to a large population of military veterans. The daughter of farmworkers, she enlisted in the navy and served as a Marine Corps drill instructor. That oath doesn’t expire, she said. I came back home and still felt this need to serve.

In an election that will be decided largely by kitchen-table issues, Mendoza is railing against Republicans for the myriad ways in which she says they’ve raised the cost of living since Trump’s re-election — the scattershot tariffs, the war in Iran, an upside down tax system that favors billionaires and corporations, and safety net cuts that left nearly half a million Arizonans without food assistance.

Trump has a record-low approval in Arizona, said non-partisan pollster Mike Noble. His rating is actually below where it stood right after January 6.

A county that could flip the map

Control of the Senate may come down to the results of Georgia’s contest between US senator Jon Ossoff and US congressman Mike Collins. And Georgia’s election may come down to a handful of places where turnout and partisan sentiment aren’t easily predicted. Gwinnett, with its surge in population, of both US-born newcomers and immigrants, may be one of those places.

Gwinnett county is home to many immigrants and other newcomers. In 2020, Gwinnett was 30.6 percent white, 27.8 percent Black, 23.7 percent Hispanic, 13.2 percent Asian, and 4.0 percent multiracial. About 28 percent of Gwinnett residents were born outside of the United States. According to the US census diversity index, there is an 84.9 percent chance that two randomly selected Gwinnett residents will belong to different racial or ethnic groups.

Johanna Park owns Cafe Amico at Suwanee Town Center, one of her three Italian coffee shops in the area just north of Atlanta. She was born in Korea and lived much of her life in Argentina and Peru. She’s been in Gwinnett for more than 20 years, part of an early wave of Korean immigration that’s built Korean American car dealerships, banks, insurance agencies, supermarkets and restaurants like her own.

They’re deporting all of the Hispanic people from here, left and right, Park said. With little media fanfare, ICE began a shadow surge of arrests in August. Called Operation Safe Community, the agency detained more than 1,000 immigrants across metro Atlanta, disproportionately targeting immigrant-heavy communities along Buford Highway, Norcross and other parts of Gwinnett county. And not only are they deporting them back to their country, but also they are deporting them to southern Africa? I don’t know where. And who’s paying for all of this? You know, probably you and I, with the tax money.

The county’s extraordinary school system is another draw. US News and World Report ranked the Gwinnett School of Mathematics, Science and Technology as the top high school in Georgia and seventh nationally. It is also far and away the largest school district in Georgia, with more than 180,000 students. Even as public school enrollment falls across America, parents around Atlanta have been voting with their feet by moving to Gwinnett.

That growth — not the war, not gas prices, not even Trump — might be the key political issue for Gwinnett voters. Though housing starts have fallen since the early 2000s boom, the county has been absorbing more than 10,000 new residents a year since.

The midterms are being decided not by slogans alone but by whether voters can see the cost of the moment in their own lives — at the pump, in the water tap, on the ranch, in the classroom, and in the ads that now carry a government disclaimer.