Trump’s Quiet Pivot to Moscow Reshapes the Ukraine War

The pivot takes shape in St. Petersburg

The meeting lasted about three hours in the Constantine Palace, on the banks of the Neva. Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, sat with Vladimir Putin, Kremlin foreign-policy adviser Yuri Ushakov and presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner joined by video link. Afterward, Ushakov told reporters that Putin had agreed “in principle” to resume trilateral negotiations with Washington and Kyiv, and suggested a new round could be held around 10 November in Abu Dhabi. The talks, he said, must focus on “building a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the conflict.”

In Oslo the day before, Witkoff had met Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre described the encounter as “good and constructive.” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said the process was back on track. The U.S. envoy said there was “some degree of momentum” and that President Trump remains committed to seeing the war end. A U.S. official told the BBC that Witkoff and Kushner had proposed a technical-level trilateral meeting between the United States, Russia and Ukraine. The proposal was accepted by Ukrainians in Oslo and by Russians in St. Petersburg, the official said. Zelenskyy confirmed on Wednesday that Russia supports a trilateral meeting between teams and that the American side is proposing to do it as soon as possible. “We are in favour of it,” he said.

The Kremlin message was less optimistic. Ushakov said Witkoff had conveyed “new approaches from the Europeans and Kyiv.” “In terms of resolving the Ukraine crisis, there wasn’t much there that was useful,” he commented. Russian state TV pressed him on prospects for peace. “I don’t know how close we are getting,” Ushakov replied, “but things are moving in that direction.” Putin told Witkoff that Russian troops were advancing everywhere across the vast front line and had a “strategic initiative.” Ukraine and its European allies dispute the claim, pointing to a virtual stalemate. Zelenskyy said on Wednesday he would accept a deal that would freeze the war along the current front line. “We call it ‘ceasefire’ or ‘stop killings’ like President Trump called it. Freeze and stop.

And of course this is minimum what we need from Russia today,” he told Fox News, adding that security guarantees for Ukraine could be discussed after this.

A rift opens with Kyiv

The diplomatic choreography is running alongside a public rupture. On Tuesday, Trump increased pressure on Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. “We want Zelenskyy to make a deal,” he told reporters. “We’ve given a lot to Ukraine. We’ve gotten absolutely nothing back except high diesel.” He said it is time for Ukraine to get a new president, and most recently “for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.”

The friction predates the St. Petersburg visit. Last week Kyiv accused Washington of withholding critical intelligence to warn Ukrainians about incoming Russian ballistic missile launches, resulting in many civilian deaths. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday rejected the accusations as “scandalous,” and Zelenskyy said after the Oslo talks that intelligence sharing “works now.”

The military also complained of speed restrictions by the U.S. satellite internet network Starlink, owned by Elon Musk, which constricted its ability to use drones to conduct strikes against Russia. U.S. officials have denied having requested such a slowdown and a bipartisan group of U.S. senators has called for an urgent investigation.

Serhii Beskrestnov, a defense technology adviser to Zelenskyy, wrote on Facebook on Oct. 14 that SpaceX had imposed restrictions on Starlink and Starshield in Ukraine without warning and had disrupted a number of the Ukrainian military’s missions. Reuters reported on Oct. 15 that Pentagon officials received an order to limit Starshield “from inside the White House.” The Telegraph reported that day that it was Musk who first approached Trump with the idea to slow down SpaceX services in Ukraine, and that one anonymous source said Trump “agreed” with Musk’s idea. The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 20 that one anonymous source said Trump and Musk spoke about slowing down Starshield speeds before Musk reportedly “ordered” restrictions. Snopes could not independently verify those reports because they relied on anonymous sources. Trump told reporters on Oct.

16 that neither he nor Musk were responsible for the decision to slow down SpaceX services in Ukraine. Musk wrote on X that the “US military and ultimately POTUS” were responsible for the secure Starshield system and that the commercial Starlink product could not be used for “offensive military action.” Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.

The dispute has fed a broader sense in Kyiv that Washington is tilting. European officials tell PBS NewsHour that the U.S. program to sell weapons to Europe to give to Ukraine is still working, but there aren’t enough air defense interceptors to go around, as Secretary Pete Hegseth said. “We haven’t changed our posture in any way toward the Ukrainians,” Hegseth said. “But certainly with things like interceptors, we want to make sure our guys have the most possible as well.”

In the field, Russian missile and drone attacks killed at least four and injured dozens, including children, overnight in Ukraine. Zelenskyy said: “So, all of us want peace, Ukraine, Europe, United States, and we will see what will be tomorrow. Of course, we’re not losing this war, but we are losing people. And because Russia attacks, we’re losing people and time.”

Goodwill bought in St. Petersburg

Before the talks began, Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American citizen who had been given a jail sentence of nearly seven years for allegedly fighting on behalf of Ukraine. Trump said the former teacher was “on his way back home” and “there was no ‘swap’ necessary,” while Witkoff called Putin a “humanitarian” for agreeing the release.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian media that Hubbard’s release was “raised by the American side for a certain time,” and Putin decided to free the man out of “humanitarian considerations.” Witkoff thanked Putin for the release, saying, “Because of you, he’s going home to his family.” “You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian. You are a humanitarian also, sir,” Witkoff said.

The release came amid a series of moves by the administration that benefit Moscow. Trump last week waived sanctions on Russia imposed by a bill that Congress overwhelmingly passed to support Ukraine. The legislation, named after the late South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, targeted the flow of financial resources fueling Moscow’s war. That reversal followed Trump’s announcement of a deal to import Russian diesel fuel in a long-shot effort to curb high gas prices ahead of next month’s U.S. midterm elections. Trump blamed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries for fuel prices which have been rising since the start of the U.S.-led war on Iran.

He was heavily criticised by Democratic and some Republican lawmakers after lifting sanctions on Russia, allowing it to release tonnes of diesel “to the American and global marketplace,” despite signing legislation to authorise fresh U.S. sanctions and tariffs on nations that import Russian oil and gas just weeks earlier.

Witkoff said he thanked Putin for lifting Russia’s ban on diesel exports, which angered some U.S. lawmakers, adding that it would help reduce prices for American farmers and truckers. Putin said he was ready to consider prospects for the restoration of U.S.-Russia economic ties, adding that he’s also prepared to discuss the U.S.-led conflict with Iran. Moscow is ready to use its special relationship with Tehran to help bring peace, he said.

Vice President JD Vance, asked by a BBC reporter whether he agreed with Witkoff’s description of Putin as a humanitarian, said: “I agree with Steve Witkoff saying something nice to a person who just released an American hostage. Whether you agree with the underlying sentiment or not, Steve Witkoff is a diplomat. His job is to go over there and get a job done.”

A new Yalta?

The diplomatic push is not sitting well with some observers. BBC Russia editor Steve Rosenberg notes that a Putin-Zelensky-Trump trilateral may not be imminent. The Kremlin says it may be willing to resume trilateral talks next month in Abu Dhabi, but only at the technical level. For me, the most telling statement was from Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov. He took part in the St. Petersburg talks. Ushakov said that Steve Witkoff had told President Putin about the discussions in Oslo and new approaches from the Europeans and Kyiv. The Kremlin adviser was clearly unimpressed. “In terms of resolving the Ukraine crisis, there wasn’t much there that was useful,” commented Ushakov.

Russian MP and TV anchor Evgeny Popov says: “Right now Trump is the only leader in the Western world who is doing something for peace.” Asked whether he wants a peace on Russia’s terms, he answered, “Of course!”

In China next month, a meeting between Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may take place on the fringes of the Apec summit. Some commentators in Russia are already dubbing it “The New Yalta,” a reference to the Yalta Conference of 1945, where Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt met to plan the political and territorial reorganisation of post-war Europe. “Russia, China and the United States are the only superpowers right now in the world,” Popov says. “Of course, it will be good for the entire world if our leaders meet in China.” After nearly five years of war, that would put Vladimir Putin exactly where he wants to be — at the top table of global politics.

Election pressure at home

The shift is unfolding as Trump faces a bruising political moment at home. A New York Times/Siena poll shows likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans running for office by 11 percentage points. Trump’s approval rating in that survey is 36%. Democrats have an 11-point lead among likely voters as the midterms approach, with voting set for Nov. 3.

Trump is campaigning in South Carolina and elsewhere, urging supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” FactCheck.org’s October 2026 update notes job growth became sluggish, with only 776,000 jobs created under his second term so far, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, inflation worsened with consumer prices up 5.4% and gasoline up 38%. The S&P 500 went up 28.6%, and violent crime and murder rates in 2025 continued to decline, dropping by the largest percentages since the FBI began collecting nationwide data in 1936. Publicly held debt is up about 12.8%.

The political climate is also shaped by Elon Musk’s growing role in Republican campaigns. America Pac, the Super PAC founded by Musk, has spent more than $500,000 in New York’s highly competitive 17th congressional district race to help Mike Lawler hold on to his seat. Musk has threatened to “come for” Democrats who “pick fights” with him in the next Congress.

In Washington, the US Park Police are spending $343,000 to lease mobile surveillance cameras from LiveView Technologies, a company that also supplies Immigration and Customs Enforcement, federal contract records show. The deal comes as Trump has insisted that vandals damaged the reflecting pool, charges that have since been dismissed. The president posted on Truth Social that “we are watching very closely, and security cameras have been installed” at the reflecting pool.

The pivot is now a story about two audiences. For Moscow, it is an easing of pressure and a chance at a seat at a new great-power table. For Kyiv, it feels like a thinning of support just as the air defenses are under strain and winter approaches. For voters at home, the diplomacy is competing with a midterm election where the public is moving away from the Republican brand. Whether the technical-level meeting in Abu Dhabi materializes, and whether it leads to anything beyond a freeze, will decide whether Trump’s diplomatic pivot is read as statesmanship or as a concession to a war he now wants to end on Moscow’s terms.