The Lies That Are Running For Office

The last week

The week before Nov. 3 feels different this year. In diners across Michigan and Texas, people are talking less about policy than about stories they can’t quite place. A rumor about a congresswoman fleeing her home after a raid. A claim that a Senate hopeful was treated in a mental health facility. An ad that was supposed to run in Portland, Maine, that aired instead in Portland, Oregon. The claims arrive on phones, in group chats, in clipped videos, and they move faster than any fact-check can keep up.

Control of Congress is at stake and the midterms will shape the final two years of Donald Trump’s second term. The president’s disapproval rating among registered voters ranks among his worst in either term of office. In his final push he has asked supporters to pretend he’s on the ballot, promised payouts tied to Republican election wins, and continued to undermine the integrity of the nation’s election procedures. The atmosphere is tense, familiar, and crowded with invented detail.

A Texas rally and the art of the falsehood

In Lubbock on Tuesday, the crowd at the Memorial Civic Center swelled under the big tent. Trump took the stage and announced a rollback of federal rules issued by the Biden administration in 2023 to force oil and gas companies to cut emissions of methane. “Tonight, I’m officially terminating Biden’s expensive and unnecessary methane regulations to save consumers and energy producers,” he said, lifting what he called “crippling regulations on methane that caused prices to skyrocket” for small oil and gas operators.

The EPA administrator praised the move “to end the war on oil and natural gas.” The agency said the proposal is expected to save $45bn in costs to consumers and businesses and produce an estimated 210m additional barrels of oil and 1.41tn cubic feet of natural gas.

The same night he attacked James Talarico for showing compassion for transgender children, used the phrase “to the victor belong the spoils” to claim Venezuela’s oil, and said he would respect election results “if they’re honest.” He also repeated the claim that gasoline prices are lower now than when Obama was president.

Across October, at rallies in Syracuse, San Antonio, Port Huron, Youngstown and Clarksville, Trump has repeated a set of familiar numbers. In Syracuse on Oct. 9 he falsely claimed he “inherited the worst inflation in American history,” then added, “Now we have it down to 1.8%.” The worst inflation occurred after World War I, when the 12-month increase in prices was 23.7% from June 1919 to June 1920. The annualized inflation rate during the Biden administration peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, and was down to 3.0% when Trump took office in January 2025. It was most recently up to 3.7% for the 12 months ending in September.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 2.6% for the 12 months ending in September, down from the 3.3% annual core inflation rate Trump inherited, but the annual rate hasn’t been 1.7% or lower since 2021.

On oil, he said: “As soon as the war is over, oil is tumbling down like you’ve never seen. It’s already coming way down. We control the strait. Oil is coming down.” The price of crude oil is not way down. West Texas Intermediate crude was $98.73 a barrel on Oct. 9, and was up to $105.25 as of Oct. 26, according to Energy Information Administration data. The price was $66.96 a barrel on Feb. 27, the day before the war with Iran began. Brent crude was $130.03 on Oct. 9, up from $71.32 just before the war, and was $128.12 as of Oct. 26.

He said in San Antonio on Oct. 7: “The poverty rate has just reached its lowest level, so the best poverty numbers, lowest level in American history. Think of that. African American poverty, Hispanic American poverty, and Native American poverty rates are all at their lowest levels ever recorded.” The official U.S. poverty rate was 10.2% in 2025, the lowest on record. The official poverty rates for Hispanics and Native Americans also reached record lows last year. The lowest rate for African Americans was 17.1% in 2022. But by the supplemental poverty measure, which factors in government assistance and geography, 13.1% of the U.S. population was living in poverty in 2025, higher than the low of 7.7% in 2021.

He said in Port Huron, Michigan, on Oct. 25: “More Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country.” There were 159,044,000 people working in the U.S. in September. That’s more than ever before. But the employment-to-population ratio was 59.2% in September, down from 60.1% when Trump took office for his second term in January 2025.

In Youngstown, Ohio, on Oct. 12, he said, “Our first term was phenomenal. You know, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country. We’re blowing it away now.” Neither of Trump’s terms were the “greatest” in terms of growth of real gross domestic product. During Trump’s first term, annual real GDP growth peaked at 3% in 2018. Since he has been back in office, real GDP growth was just 2.3% in 2025 and was also less than 3% in the first and second quarters of 2026.

Candidates under fire

The misinformation isn’t just coming from the podium. Snopes has been tracking nineteen claims about 2026 candidates, and rumors about high-profile candidates, including Rep. Ilhan Omar, Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed and Texas Rep. James Talarico, gained particular traction.

On Oct. 16, 2026, a story circulated that Ilhan Omar didn’t flee to Morocco after federal agents’ raid on her home. On Oct. 15, critics claimed she changed her birth year in official records, a claim said to indicate citizenship fraud. On Sept. 19, Trump and other Republicans amplified the unfounded rumor that she married her brother, with no evidence backing the claim made by Rep. Bryan Mullin.

In Texas, Talarico has been the subject of a steady drumbeat. A rumor falsely claimed he was treated at an Ohio mental health facility, a claim that erupted after he disappeared from a public event. Posts sharing a quote about hating Christianity omit context from a 2021 podcast. Republicans claimed he is vegan; he is not. A pastor aligned with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he wants Talarico “crucified,” speaking figuratively in broader context. Trump attributed a quote about trans people being an insult to Jesus to Talarico, a quote correctly attributed to Trump, who also cited “vegan food” and wearing a mask as reasons. In 2021 Talarico spoke out against legislation to ban transgender children from joining youth sports teams, saying “God is nonbinary.”

He also voted against a bill meant to protect Texas land from Chinese interests, a decision he and others said was because amendments would likely extend its impact. The FCC threatening Jimmy Kimmel over a Talarico interview was questioned, with what we know still unfolding.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed faced a cascade of invented biography. Claims that his mother was linked to a charity with ties to Hamas and terrorist groups are missing key context; a spokesperson said she was working to help orphaned children. Claims that El-Sayed ran a “dog slaughterhouse” in Detroit are false; Detroit Animal Control faced complaints before he was in office. Claims that he said America deserved 9/11 are false; the claim was spread on social media by his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers. Another rumor claimed Rogers received $4.7 million from people in Epstein files, a paper trail followed by fact-checkers.

Other candidates were hit too. An ad meant to target Maine Sen. Susan Collins’ opponent Troy Jackson aired in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine. Marsha Blackburn didn’t say she would bring back school segregation in Tennessee if elected governor, though she has long opposed DEI initiatives. A claim linking Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson to the KKK lacks key context; she has a long history with the Southern Poverty Law Center.

The economy voters feel

The White House is confronting a familiar dilemma. The economic numbers aren’t necessarily bad — but the public mood is. It’s a disconnect that haunted Joe Biden in 2024, when solid headline data failed to convince many voters that the economy was working for them. Now, Donald Trump faces a version of the same challenge.

During the 2024 campaign, Trump promised voters swift relief from rising prices. “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down,” he said. Delivering on that promise has proved harder than expected. Economic growth is holding up, unemployment remains low and the stock market is near record highs. Yet the final inflation report ahead of the midterm elections confirms what voters already know: prices remain high.

The causes are different. Biden was grappling with the aftermath of the Covid pandemic. Trump faces higher energy prices linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran and the fallout from some of his own trade and immigration policies. The political reality, however, is much the same. Voters are not judging the economy by GDP figures or record highs on the stock market. They are judging it by what they pay at the supermarket, petrol prices and whether they can keep up with the bills.

US economic growth of 2.2% would be respectable by the standards of many wealthy economies. A stable US unemployment rate of 4.2% hardly suggests an economy in freefall. Trump argues he inherited an economic mess from Biden, and points to strong growth, investment and stock market performance as evidence his policies are working.

Following the most recent inflation report, White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said the administration’s “aggressive, pro-growth economic agenda” had blunted “Biden’s inflation crisis.” Larry Kudlow described the current expansion as “the greatest story never told,” arguing that “nobody is getting fired.”

Voters appear to be reading a different story — one in which Trump won the presidency promising to tackle the cost of living, only for prices to keep rising. Part of the problem is that wage increases have not kept pace with prices. Average hourly earnings have risen 3% over the last year, while consumer prices have increased 3.7%. That helps explain why polls continue to show voters giving Trump poor marks for his handling of the economy.

Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster, says the problem begins with the way economists and voters use the same language to mean different things. “When economists say inflation comes down, they mean the rate of increase has come down,” she says. “When voters say inflation has come down, they mean the price has returned to what it was. Well, of course, it never returns to what it was.”

The approval gap

Under Trump’s second term, job growth became sluggish, with only 776,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, still historically low. Inflation worsened. Consumer prices are up 5.4%. Gasoline is up 38%. Wages just barely rose faster than inflation, as measured since Trump was sworn in. But they’ve decreased this year. The economy grew 2.2% in the second quarter, continuing a steady rate of growth. Consumer sentiment remains low. Home prices increased 6.2%. The trade deficit for the most recent 12 months is down 10.4% compared with 2024, but it has risen substantially in the last two months on record.

The number of apprehensions at the U.S. border with Mexico decreased about 91%. The number of refugee admissions dropped by nearly the same percentage. The percentage of the population lacking health insurance was statistically unchanged in 2025. The number of people receiving federal food assistance decreased by 6 million. Median household income rose in 2025, while the official poverty rate declined. An alternative measure of poverty that factors in government assistance showed no meaningful change.

Corporate profits continued to rise; 2025 was the 10th consecutive year that profits increased. The S&P 500 went up 28.6%. The violent crime and murder rates in 2025 continued to decline, dropping by the largest percentages since the FBI began collecting nationwide data in 1936. The publicly held debt is up about 12.8%.

Employment growth became sluggish during Trump’s first 20 months in office. Total nonfarm employment increased by only 776,000 between January 2025 and September 2026. The total went up nearly three times faster before, rising by 2,613,000 during the final 20 months of President Joe Biden’s administration. Federal government employment has fallen by 328,000, or 10.9%, since he took office. Private-sector jobs added during Trump’s term so far total 1,006,000, far less than the 1,778,000 private-sector jobs added in the preceding 20 months. The average monthly gain in jobs during Trump’s second term so far has been only 39,000.

The labor force participation rate declined in Trump’s second term, dropping from 62.6% in January 2025 to 61.8% as of September. The unemployment rate was 4.0% in January 2025 and most recently was 4.2% in September.

Some economists argue today’s higher prices are at least partly the result of his own policies, including tariffs, as well as the economic fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran. “The inflation is clearly traceable to Donald Trump,” says Peter Morici, a University of Maryland economist who aligns with Republicans. “It’s his tariffs and the war. People know that. They see it.”

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, announced in April 2025, have added to costs for consumers. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found the tariffs increased consumer goods prices by about 2.9%. Conflict with Iran pushed oil prices higher, lifting the cost of petrol and putting fresh pressure on household budgets.

The White House points to tax cuts, job growth and lower prescription drug costs as evidence the administration is delivering. It is increasingly embracing policies aimed at easing pressures. Trump has called for a cap on credit card interest rates and floated the idea of a $5,000 payment to American adults if Republicans retain control of Congress.

When voters are anxious about prices, arguments about solid growth and low unemployment are rarely enough. Biden never found a way to bridge the gap between economic performance and economic sentiment. The question heading into the midterms is whether Trump can.